In June this year, many institutions in China and abroad raised the sales forecast of China's new energy vehicles this year to more than 2.5 million. Now, this data has been raised again to more than 3 million vehicles.
BENERGY Lifepo4 Batteries Pack for Electric Vehicles.
According to the data released by the passenger Federation, the wholesale penetration rate of China's new energy vehicle manufacturers was 20.1% in August; From January to August, the permeability reached 12.8%, significantly higher than the permeability of 5.8% in 2020. Meanwhile, the passenger Federation has raised the annual production and sales target of new energy passenger vehicles in 2021 to 3 million.
The data released by the China Automobile Association also shows that under the background of the decline of China's automobile production and sales, new energy vehicles bucked the trend, and the production and sales volume exceeded 300000 for the first time, reaching a new record. From January to August, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased to 11%, of which the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased to 17.8% in August.
According to the research report issued by CITIC Securities, it is expected that the pressure of core shortage in the industry in September will be gradually relieved, the trend of "demand is better than supply" will not change, and the opportunity to replenish inventory is clear. In addition, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to set a new historical record in August, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles this year will exceed 3 million with a high probability.
Chuancai Securities believes that from the current trend, the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles will continue to reach a new high, the penetration rate of electric vehicles will continue to increase, and the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles this year will be raised to 3 million.
Dongxing securities predicts that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 2.969 million this year, a year-on-year increase of 1.17 times; The annual sales volume will reach 6.753 million vehicles in 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of 34.4% from 2020 to 2025.
According to the analysis of China Automobile Association, according to this trend, China is expected to achieve the medium and long-term planning goal of 20% market share of new energy vehicles in 2025 ahead of schedule. Several experts also said that the previously set sales target of 20% penetration rate and 5 million new energy vehicles in 2025 is likely to be achieved ahead of schedule in 2022 or 2023.
At the same time, as a key component of new energy vehicles, the installed capacity of power batteries also shows a steady growth trend.
According to the data released by SNE research on September 10, from January to July, the installed capacity of global electric vehicle batteries was 137.1gwh, a year-on-year increase of 2.4 times. Among them, the market share of most Chinese enterprises has increased. Many Chinese companies, including Ningde times, which ranks first, and BYD, which ranks fourth, have promoted market growth with a steady trend.
In addition, according to the data released by China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, from January to August, China's power battery loading volume accumulated 76.3gwh, a year-on-year increase of 176.3%.
Dongxing securities predicts that the installed capacity of power batteries in China will be 133.6gwh and 303.9gwh in 2021 and 2025 respectively.
CICC's forecast data are more optimistic: in 2025, the installed capacity of global power lithium battery is expected to reach 1430gwh, of which the Chinese market will reach 428gwh, the overseas market will total 1052gwh, and the overseas demand will account for 70%.
Battery network believes that the industry's confidence in the high growth expectation of new energy vehicles and power batteries, in addition to the positive signals released by the market, the favorable policies are also one of the important boosting factors.
On September 13, Xiao Yaqing, Minister of industry and information technology, introduced at the press conference of the state information office that there were "three breakthroughs" in the development of new energy vehicles: first, technological breakthroughs, the establishment of a complete industrial system connecting upstream and downstream, and the breakthrough of key technologies such as battery, motor and electronic control; Second, the product has made a breakthrough. The mileage has been greatly increased on the original basis. Many vehicles have reached more than 500 kilometers. Although there are still some problems in the actual operation, the total mileage has been greatly increased; The third is the market breakthrough, with the annual sales volume ranking first in the world for six consecutive years. By the end of August, the cumulative promotion has exceeded 7 million vehicles.
Xiao Yaqing said that in the next step, new energy vehicle enterprises should become bigger and stronger. Now there are too many new energy vehicle enterprises, which are small and scattered. We should give full play to the role of the market, encourage enterprise mergers and acquisitions to become bigger and stronger, and further improve the industrial concentration. At present, all parties have high enthusiasm for the development of new energy vehicles, which has greatly promoted the development of new energy vehicles. However, we should also see the characteristics of high technical content of new energy vehicles, so resources should be market-oriented and concentrated as much as possible to avoid dispersion.
With the improvement of industrial concentration, the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises in the international new energy vehicle market will also rise rapidly! According to the statistical analysis of China Automobile Association, in August, China's automobile export continued to maintain high growth, and the export volume in a single month reached a new high. Among them, the contribution of new energy vehicle export growth in August was 35.2%.
It can be predicted that under the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutralization", the market penetration of new energy vehicles will be accelerated, the installed capacity of power batteries will continue to rise, and the influence of Chinese enterprises in the global new energy vehicle market will also usher in a leap forward development!
Contact Person: Mr. Kevin Zhang
Tel: +86 13580452443