For lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2021, an important key word is "counter attack".
According to the latest monthly data of power battery from China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, in August 2021, China's power battery output totaled 19.5Gwh, a year-on-year increase of 161.7% and a month on month increase of 12.3%. Among them, the output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 11.1gwh, accounting for 56.9% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 268.2% and a month on month increase of 18.8%; The output of ternary battery was 8.4gwh, accounting for 42.9% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 91.5% and a month on month increase of 4.8%.
In fact, in terms of output alone, lithium iron phosphate battery achieved the reverse super of ternary battery in May this year. In that month, the output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 8.8gwh, accounting for 63.6% of the total output; The output of ternary battery is 5.0Gwh,
accounting for 36.2% of the total output. This has become the month in which the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate battery exceeds that of ternary battery for the first time in recent three years.
In this month, the annual cumulative output of lithium iron phosphate battery also exceeded that of ternary battery for the first time, and the output from January to May was 29.4Gwh and 29.9Gwh respectively. From 2018 to 2020, the annual output of lithium iron phosphate batteries in China was lower than that of ternary batteries.
In the following June, lithium iron phosphate battery continued to lead the ternary battery in terms of output. In that month, the output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 7.8gwh, accounting for 51.2% of the total output; The output of ternary battery is 7.4gwh, accounting for 48.4% of the total output.
In July, the output of lithium iron phosphate battery continued to take the lead. In that month, the output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 9.3gwh, accounting for 53.8% of the total output; The output of ternary battery is 8 GWH, accounting for 46% of the total output.
Until August, the output of lithium iron phosphate battery exceeded that of ternary battery for the fourth consecutive month, and the gap between the two was further enlarged, with market share of 56.9% and 42.9% respectively. So far, the market share of lithium iron phosphate battery has exceeded that of ternary battery by nearly 14%.
From January to August, the total output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 58.1gwh, accounting for 52.1% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 301.8%; The total output of ternary battery was 53.2gwh, accounting for 47.7% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 137.2%. This means that in terms of output, lithium iron phosphate batteries exceed ternary lithium batteries in terms of volume and year-on-year growth.
With the increase of output, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery loading has also increased since May, and exceeded that of ternary lithium battery in July.
According to the data, in July 2021, the total loading of lithium iron phosphate battery was 5.8Gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 235.5% and a month on month increase of 13.4%, accounting for 51.3% of the total loading; The total loading of ternary batteries was 5.5Gwh, a year-on-year increase of 67%, a month on month decrease of 8.2%, and the proportion of loading volume fell to 48.7% from 54.1% last month.
In August, the proportion of ternary lithium battery loading continued to fall to 43%, while the proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery loading increased to 57%. In the same month, 7.2Gwh lithium iron phosphate batteries were loaded, with a year-on-year increase of 361.8% and a month on month increase of 24.4%; A total of 5.3Gwh of ternary lithium batteries were loaded, with a year-on-year increase of 51.9% and a month on month decrease of 2.1%.
Cost performance and safety are highlighted, and lithium iron phosphate is fully anti super ternary
It can be seen that in May and July this year, lithium iron phosphate batteries exceeded the output and installed capacity of ternary lithium batteries respectively. Since then, until August, the growth rate of lithium iron phosphate battery in a single month is much higher than that of ternary lithium battery.
For the strong return of lithium iron phosphate battery, analysts of Gaishi Automobile Research Institute said that it is inseparable from its two advantages, one is cost performance, the other is safety.
In recent years, with the continuous innovation of battery technical structure, the cost performance of lithium iron phosphate battery has become more and more prominent. For example, structural innovations such as CTP and blade battery have improved the endurance performance and cost performance of LFP battery. In addition, with the gradual decline of new energy subsidies, the cost sensitivity of medium and low-end passenger cars, buses and logistics vehicles has increased, and LFP batteries with higher cost performance are more favored by vehicle enterprises.
In July, the output of lithium iron phosphate battery continued to take the lead. In that month, the output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 9.3Gwh, accounting for 53.8% of the total output; The output of NMC battery is 8 GWH, accounting for 46% of the total output.
Until August, the output of lithium iron phosphate battery exceeded that of ternary battery for the fourth consecutive month, and the gap between the two was further enlarged, with market share of 56.9% and 42.9% respectively. So far, the market share of lithium iron phosphate battery has exceeded that of NMC battery by nearly 14%.
From January to August, the total output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 58.1Gwh, accounting for 52.1% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 301.8%; The total output of ternary battery was 53.2gwh, accounting for 47.7% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 137.2%. This means that in terms of output, lithium iron phosphate batteries exceed NMC lithium batteries in terms of volume and year-on-year growth.
With the increase of output, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery loading has also increased since May, and exceeded that of NMC lithium battery in July.
According to the data, in July 2021, the total loading of lithium iron phosphate battery was 5.8gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 235.5% and a month on month increase of 13.4%, accounting for 51.3% of the total loading; The total loading of ternary batteries was 5.5gwh, a year-on-year increase of 67%, a month on month decrease of 8.2%, and the proportion of loading volume fell to 48.7% from 54.1% last month.
Hua'an securities once pointed out in the research report that in terms of cathode materials, lithium iron phosphate can reduce the cost by 65% - 72% compared with ternary batteries; Even considering the extreme calculation of cobalt free and significant decline in ternary price, the cost of lithium iron phosphate is still significantly better than ternary, with cost reduction advantages of 55% and 22% respectively in cathode and cell.
In addition, the frequency of spontaneous combustion accidents of new energy vehicles also makes the industry pay more and more attention to the safety of power batteries. Compared with ternary batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries have inherent advantages in this regard. Experiments show that LFP battery has great advantages in safety performance and cycle life. 1C charging and discharging cycle life can reach 2000 times, puncture does not explode, and it is not easy to explode and burn when overcharged.
On the basis of these two reasons, at present, a number of Star car enterprises and new forces of car making have launched lithium iron phosphate models, and international automobile brands also intend to test the water and use lithium iron phosphate batteries, which plays a positive role in promoting the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries. For example, some popular products equipped with LFP batteries, such as Tesla Model3, BYD Han and Wuling Hongguang miniev, have directly driven the growth of LFP battery installed capacity, and this driving effect is expected to continue. The proportion of lithium iron phosphate vehicles in the application catalogue of new energy vehicles of the Ministry of industry and information technology has increased, and the installed proportion of passenger vehicles has increased more significantly.
Other insiders pointed out that an important reason for the increase in the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries is that the power battery market is out of stock at present, and the capacity of domestic lithium iron phosphate battery materials is greater than that of nickel cobalt manganese ternary lithium battery materials. There are also many manufacturers that can produce lithium iron phosphate batteries that meet the needs of automobile enterprises. Therefore, lithium iron phosphate batteries can be more widely used.
Each performance has its own advantages and disadvantages, and lithium iron phosphate / ternary will go hand in hand
It should be pointed out that before this anti super, lithium iron phosphate battery also had a brilliant moment. According to the observation and analysis of gaish Automotive Research Institute, in 2016, lithium iron phosphate battery once won 73% of the market share with an installed capacity of 19.98gwh (about 18.24gwh for new energy commercial vehicles and 1.74gwh for new energy passenger vehicles).
Since then, with the rapid rise of new energy passenger vehicles equipped with ternary lithium batteries, the market share of ternary lithium batteries soared from 27% in 2016 to 65% in 2019, and lithium iron phosphate batteries began to decline all the way to 32% in 2019. However, this situation shows signs of reversal in 2020.
In 2020, the cumulative loading volume of lithium iron phosphate battery was 24.4gwh, accounting for 38.3% of the total loading volume, with a year-on-year increase of 20.6%; Although the loading volume of ternary lithium battery has reached 38.9gwh, accounting for 61.1% of the total loading volume, its growth rate has decreased by 4.1% year-on-year.
In 2021, the recovery trend of lithium iron phosphate battery is becoming more and more obvious. It has successively exceeded the ternary lithium battery in terms of output and installed capacity, and the monthly growth rate is much higher than that of ternary lithium battery.
It can be seen from the above that as the two mainstream battery technology routes of the global electric vehicle industry, the "war" between lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary lithium battery has never stopped. And from 2016 to 2021, lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary batteries show an obvious trend of change. In addition to their respective advantages and disadvantages, another important reason for this situation is the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles.
In December 2016, the state included the energy density of battery system into the assessment standard for the first time, and products with higher energy density and longer endurance mileage will receive higher subsidies. This policy directly promoted the rapid expansion of ternary lithium battery market with higher energy density. By 2020, the new energy subsidy policy will gradually decline, and the state has stopped further promoting the energy density and mileage of vehicle battery pack. Instead, it has begun to improve the battery safety to the level of policy, which has become an important driving factor for the return of lithium iron phosphate battery.
If we say that before 2020, the subsidy policy is an important starting point to determine the development of lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries. After the subsidy decline in 2020, the advance and retreat of the two will depend on their abilities. For the comprehensive return of lithium iron phosphate battery, the industry also puts forward some thoughts on the development prospect of the whole power battery market, including ternary lithium battery.
At present, a common view is that lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary battery have their own advantages and disadvantages in terms of performance, among which ternary battery has high energy density and good low temperature performance; Lithium iron phosphate battery has the advantages of low cost, good high temperature performance, long service life and high safety. Based on this, ternary battery and lithium iron phosphate battery will go hand in hand in the future. Overall, the main high-performance models will continue to use ternary batteries, while the models with more emphasis on cost performance will give priority to lithium iron phosphate batteries, and the vehicle enterprises will make targeted choices according to different market needs.
China economic network
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