With the soaring market demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage, the shipments of lithium iron phosphate batteries soared, driving the continuous rise of material prices.
In December, according to the latest market quotation, the average spot price of power lithium iron phosphate has exceeded RMB 90000 yuan / ton, an increase of 3000 yuan / ton compared with last month, a new high in three years!
Meanwhile, due to the continued strong demand in the downstream market in the fourth quarter, the supply gap of lithium iron is still. It is expected that the price of lithium iron phosphate will still rise with the price of raw materials by the end of this year.
In addition, while the price of materials increases, on the one hand, the capacity expansion of lithium iron phosphate batteries in battery enterprises is still accelerating, and the price increase of iron lithium batteries will rise next year; On the other hand, investment in lithium iron phosphate and raw materials continues to be a hot spot in the lithium battery industry.
Lithium iron phosphate battery production expansion fastly and price increase
From the demand side, Tesla and other car companies have selected lithium iron phosphate batteries for supporting, and battery companies led by CATL have frequently received Lifepo4 battery orders.
In terms of automobile enterprises, Hyundai, Volkswagen, Daimler and Apple all plan to use lithium iron phosphate batteries. Domestic popular models such as great wall, Xiaopeng, Nezha and Zero run have also change to use lithium iron phosphate batteries.
In terms of orders, in October this year, it was reported that Tesla had booked 45gwh lithium iron phosphate battery from CATL for next year's sales plan, mainly for model 3 and model y models. In addition to ordering 45gwh batteries from CATL, Tesla also plans to place additional orders.
At present, the installed capacity of lithium iron batteries in China has exceeded that of ternary batteries for many consecutive months. It is estimated that the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate in China may account for 60% in 2025, and the medium and long-term penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate in the world is expected to reach 35%.
In order to meet the soaring demand in the downstream, power battery enterprises have also rapidly increased the proportion of lithium iron phosphate production expansion.
CATL, in April this year, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL, said that the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries will gradually increase in the future, and CATL will increase the capacity proportion of lithium iron batteries.
BYD, the company will expand its base in Chongqing in 2021, build new bases in Changsha, Guiyang, Bengbu, Changchun and Jinan, and switch the original battery capacity in Qinghai to a success rate blade battery. It is expected that the blade battery capacity will be close to 60gwh by the end of 2021.
EVE, on November 5, the company plans to invest 6.2 billion yuan to build 20gwh large cylindrical battery project for passenger cars and 16gwh square lithium iron phosphate battery project in Jingmen; On November 12, the company's 14gwh iron lithium battery capacity was put into operation; On November 29, the company's 50gwh lithium iron phosphate battery project was signed and implemented in Chengdu.
In addition, LG new energy, ski and other international power battery giants also made it clear this year that they began to layout lithium iron phosphate batteries and plan new production lines.
At the same time, the sharp increase in demand in the industry exacerbated the supply imbalance, especially the "resurgence" of lithium iron phosphate battery was transmitted to the upstream material end, which promoted the continuous rise of raw material prices and the rise of lithium battery costs. If calculated according to the material quotation, taking the conventional 523 square lithium iron phosphate cell as an example, its cost will increase by 62%.
Recently, Ningde era, which has the strongest ability to control the cost of the industrial chain, has been said to have raised prices. Previously, several power battery enterprises have sent price increase letters, including BYD, Penghui energy, GuoXuan high tech, zhuoneng new energy, etc. It is reported that the price of lithium iron phosphate battery in China has increased by 10% - 20% since September.
In addition, it can also be seen from the bidding of 2Gwh lithium iron phosphate battery project of China iron tower in 2021. Among the quotations of the bid winning candidates, the highest bid price increased by 0.3 yuan / wh compared with February.
Industry insiders said that the price of lithium battery materials is expected to remain high next year, the cost of lithium battery is still difficult to control, and the price rise of battery enterprises is inevitable. At the same time, in order to ensure the smooth completion of next year's production scheduling plan, car enterprises are also more likely to accept price increases.
Lithium iron phosphate industry investment has become a hot spot
It can be seen that under the high uncertainty of lithium iron phosphate demand, the imbalance between supply and demand has prompted more capital to enter the construction of upstream materials, and the investment growth of lithium iron phosphate materials is the fastest compared with other materials in the power battery industry chain.
According to incomplete statistics of starting point lithium power big data, it has been disclosed that the total planned annual capacity of iron phosphate is nearly 5 million tons and that of lithium iron phosphate is more than 3 million tons.
First, in order to ensure the safety of the supply chain and reduce costs, battery enterprises accelerate the binding of lithium iron phosphate material companies, and long orders appear frequently.
For example, CATL has successively completed the capital increase of Jiangxi Shenghua and Hunan Yuneng, and jointly built an 80000 ton lithium iron phosphate project with German Nano, with a total investment of about 1.8 billion yuan; Yiwei lithium energy cooperates with German nano, with an investment of 2 billion to build a lithium iron phosphate cathode project with an annual capacity of 100000 tons; GP energy purchased lithium iron phosphate and other products from Fengyuan lithium energy, with a total contract amount of about 800 million yuan.
Second, LFP material enterprises bind the head battery enterprises to expand production.
For example, German Nano binding CATL, EVE lithium energy, etc., plans to raise no more than 3.2 billion yuan, of which 2.3 billion yuan is used for the production base project of new phosphate cathode materials with an annual output of 110000 tons; Anda technology raised 354 million yuan for the expansion and construction project of iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate production line, and BYD participated in the subscription.
In addition, ternary cathode material enterprises such as Huayou cobalt, Xiamen tungsten Xinneng and Bangpu are also expanding lithium iron phosphate business.
On the other hand, listed enterprises such as phosphorus chemical and titanium dioxide enterprises cross the board.
Such as Yuntianhua, xinyangfeng, CNNC titanium dioxide, Chuanfa longmang, chuanjinnuo, CHUANHENG Co., Ltd., anada, silte, yuntu holdings, etc. get together to layout Lifepo4 materials and extend to the downstream iron phosphate.
From the perspective of planned capacity, the expansion of lithium iron phosphate materials next year is quite radical, including 100000 ton or even 500000 ton projects. Many people worry that the capacity of lithium iron phosphate may be surplus next year.
In this regard, the starting point lithium power big data predicts that there is still a supply-demand gap in the overall capacity of lithium iron phosphate next year. First, because most enterprise projects are large-scale and new projects, the production capacity investment is often slow; Second, the supply of phosphorus and lithium is limited, and the iron phosphate expansion project is under great pressure in terms of environmental impact assessment, and the actual production progress should be discounted.
In terms of time, it is expected that the centralized release time of domestic lithium iron phosphate production will be from 2023 to 2024. With the significant increase of supply in 2023, the situation of short supply in lithium iron phosphate market will be alleviated.
From Zhangqinghui Starting Point Lithium Battery Big Data
Contact Person: Mr. Kevin
Tel: +86 13580452443